Title_ Evidence-based Policymaking? Revisiting the “Known,” the Assumed and the Promoted in New Social Development Policy

Author_ Johan SANDBERG

Pages 47-80

Abstract_ Supported by a virtual plethora of impact evaluations,conditional cash transfers (CCTs) have been widely promoted fortheir ability to simultaneously pursue short-term povertyalleviation through income support and long-term povertyreduction through human capital investments. In particular, theirclaim to fame lies in their perceived capacity to enable a break inintergenerational transmission of poverty. This study presents aninquiry into such capacities. First, it filters that which is “known”from that which remains assumed through a synthesis of systematicreviews. The inquiry corroborates existing research and finds thatevidence concerning CCTs’ impact pertains almost exclusively toshort-term effects from a handful of localized cases, providingscarce information on the programs’ alleged long-term capabilities.That is, existing evidence lacks any demonstrated effects onlong-term poverty reduction and human capital enhancement—thetwo overriding goals of the programs. More importantly, itcontributes to existing research and problematizes CCTs’promoted long-term impact by further qualifying the “known” andby analyzing the empirical foundations of the programs’ implicitassumptions. Findings of largely untested theoretical assumptionspertaining to the human capital–social mobility nexus furtherchallenge the basis for CCTs’ promoted capacity to enable a breakin intergenerational transmission of poverty. These findings aredeemed particularly relevant to developing countries in Africa andAsia and their efforts to adequately incorporate CCTs into povertyreduction strategies and policies.

Keywords_ Social policy, Poverty, Development, Conditional cash transfers, Impact evaluations, Latin America