Title_ How do Ex Ante Simulations Compare with Ex Post Evaluations? Evidence from the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs

Author_ Phillippe LEITE, Ambar NARAYAN & Emmanuel SKOUFIAS

Pages 1-43

Abstract_ We compare the ex ante simulation of the impacts of conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs against the ex post estimates of impacts obtained from experimental evaluations. Using the data on program-eligible households in treatment areas from the same baseline surveys used for the experimental evaluations of CCT programs in Mexico and in Ecuador, we use a micro-simulation model to derive ex ante estimates of the impact of the programs on enrollment rates and poverty. Our estimates reveal that ex ante predictions of certain impacts of CCT programs using the micro-simulation model match up well against the benchmark estimates of ex post experimental studies. The findings seem to support the use of this model to assess the potential impact and cost efficiency of a CCT program ex ante, for the purpose of informing decisions about the design of the program.

Keywords_ Conditional Cash Transfers, Micro-simulation, Experimental evaluation