Title_ Democracy and the Human Development Sequence: A Revised Cross-Country Comparison

Author_ Jairo Acuña–Alfaro

Pages 1-46

Abstract_ This paper provides a parsimonious empirical test of the relationship between democracy and HD, using time-series cross-sectional data on 164 countries from 1972 to 2002. The paper specifies a similar partial model to those found in the global comparative literature on democracy and development in an effort to replicate earlier findings and advance the proposition that there are strong reciprocal connections between HD and democratization that form two chains which reinforce one another cumulatively over time. The statistical analysis aims to show that the causal relationship forms two chains that run in both directions. This gives rise to virtuous and vicious circles, with good or bad performance on human development and democracy reinforcing each other. Cross-country partial regressions show a significant relationship in both directions. Yet evidence over time has strong sequential implications, and where a choice is necessary, democracy should be given sequencing priority over HD and economic growth, respectively. The discussion is relevant in lieu of ongoing debates about post 2015 Millennium Development Goals in regards to governance and democratization.

Keywords_ Democracy, HD, Model Specification, Identification, Endogeneity, Development Lopsidedness, Large “N”, Policy Sequence, Elective Affinities